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Electric vehicle (EV) adoption in the U.S. is getting a new wave of bad press as sales have begun to slow and charging infrastructure problems emerge. The more than year-long streak of month-over-month EV sales growth has finally ended, as U.S. sales have now shrunk for two consecutive months. Popular opinion has swung against EVs from brands such as Genesis and Volvo already, with both carmakers having to put plans to drop electric models on hold.

The federal government has done little to help. The Biden administration has long slashed EV subsidies and canceled vehicle emissions regulations, leaving few carrots to entice would-be EV customers. Industry analysts say the main hurdle may come from an unexpected place.

Home Charging and Parking Habits

Consumer surveys have long identified charging concerns as a leading deterrent to EV adoption. A new Telemetry market research report by VP Sam Abuelsamid provides more insight, with a key obstacle lying with something already in most American garages.

The big story for EV charging infrastructure today is the rapidly expanding network of high-power DC fast chargers, which provide the vast majority of public charging for long trips. But the fastest and cheapest way to charge an EV is still at home, using standard AC power, with an estimated 80 percent of EV charging happening that way. A National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) study found that 42 percent of single-family homes had at least one parking space near an outlet suitable for 240-volt level 2 charging.

The number of homes with available charging could rise dramatically if homeowners just cleared space in their garage and parked differently. “90 percent of all houses can add a 240 V outlet near where cars could be parked,” noted Abuelsamid. “Parking behavior, namely whether homeowners use a private garage for parking or storage, will likely become a key factor in EV adoption.”

Garage parking is still the single most important factor in an owner’s ability to charge. If all owners with available garage space parked their cars in their garages, the number of U.S. homes with charging capability would more than double, from 31 million to 68 million. Owners able to install a new outlet, but without the garage space, would increase the total number of homes with chargers to over 72 million. That’s already higher than Telemetry’s base case forecast for 2035 EV adoption, which projects between 33 million and 57 million U.S. vehicles.

Numbers on paper don’t always translate to reality, however. The NREL analysis showed that almost 34 million homes would need an electrical panel upgrade in order to support a 240-volt, 30-amp level 2 charger. Even minor upgrades, such as new circuits or wires, could cost thousands of dollars. Major overhauls that require a new panel may require a complete home renovation to reach the charging point.

The Hidden Costs of EV Charging

Add the cost of wiring a garage or house for charging to the purchase price, and the long-term operating cost advantage of EVs may disappear. While charging prices are often touted as lower than gasoline prices, the rate depends on local electricity rates and how much an EV is driven. Electricity prices are already rising in many markets, adding to consumer sticker shock. High installation costs are also especially prohibitive for multi-family dwellings.

Roughly 23 percent of U.S. households are in multifamily housing like apartments, condos, and townhomes. Homeowners in single-family residences are at least in charge of their own garages and electrical panels. Owners in multifamily housing generally lack that autonomy. While they may prefer to charge at home, they will often need approval from a landlord, management company, or co-op board, which may or may not be given.

The cost barrier is higher in multifamily buildings as well. A co-op looking to add a pair of shared chargers may need to budget millions of dollars for a new electrical panel and wiring first. Wiring for chargers at distant or outdoor parking spots also costs. Tenants are usually not eligible for the same city or utility incentives available to homeowners.

Only 11 percent of the more than one million EVs living in multifamily housing currently park within reach of an outlet suitable for charging. A few states have taken steps to address the issue, with mandates for 20 to 25 percent of parking spaces in multifamily developments to be EV-ready. Telemetry estimates that even with that and other initiatives, total EV-ready spaces in multifamily units will only reach 6.7 to 11.4 million by 2035, well short of demand.

Public Charging Infrastructure Lagging

Home charging capacity is far from limitless. That means public charging infrastructure must grow as well. Telemetry estimates 11.7 million to 14.3 million EV owners who own a home will still need to use public chargers by 2035. Add another 7.8 million to 8.1 million EV owners in multifamily residences also needing public charging and there is a lot of work to be done.

Meeting the new demand will require 523,000 to 586,000 DC fast chargers, plus another 1.5 million to 1.6 million level 2 chargers across the U.S. One problem: power providers are already struggling to keep up with demand, as data centers, especially AI data farms, compete for generation and distribution capacity. This creates a bottleneck for the next generation of large charging site buildouts.

EVs are also getting some serious competition on the regulatory front. The EPA has lifted the mandate for all-electric vehicles to be 50 percent of automaker’s new vehicle fleets by 2035. After lobbying from car companies, who no doubt asked for forgiveness and not compliance, the regulator has said that 40 percent of annual car sales must be zero-emission by 2035, with the standard going to the voluntary “over time” status.

All this may slow the buildout of public charging infrastructure and leave a large gap between supply and demand. At the current rate, the DOE’s Alternative Fuels Data Center estimates a total of 560,000 public charging plugs in the U.S., of which 362,700 are level 2 or faster.

EV Adoption Will Vary by Region

States, local communities, and utilities have expanded some of their incentive programs. Level 2 charger installation cost can be as low as $1500-$2000, although in areas with higher labor costs it can exceed $4000. Many programs will also pay for a new dedicated circuit and provide free charging at public stations.

Utility rates will also have an outsized impact on actual charging costs for drivers. As the number of charging stations and chargers grows, so too will the demand for electricity, leading to the aforementioned price rises. This means a much more nuanced picture for how EV charging can compete with gasoline in local markets, with lower costs in areas with higher EV penetration and lower utility rates.

The EV revolution won’t play out the same way across the U.S. Despite much of the media coverage, the widespread adoption of EVs is not a foregone conclusion. Millions of American homes already have the capability to support EV charging, but garage clutter, high electrical upgrade costs, and barriers for multi-family housing may dampen growth. Demand for public charging may overwhelm supply in the 2020s, even with high hopes for a fast-charger network.